ECONOMIA
Uma área que me traz muita curiosidade e atenção é a macroeconomia. Abaixo estão alguns indicadores que servem para dar um norte na análise econômica.
Para ter um embasamento no tema, fiz o MBA em Macroeconomia e Portfolio Management ministrado pelo ex-ministro Paulo Guedes.
GLOBAL INDICATORS
DXY & Top Stories
The DXY index, also known as the US Dollar Index, measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies. A stronger dollar typically exerts downward pressure on gold prices as it makes the precious metal more expensive for holders of other currencies. Conversely, a weaker dollar tends to support higher gold prices as it enhances the metal's appeal as an alternative store of value. Thus, movements in the DXY index often have an inverse relationship with the value of gold.
The other two provide (1) highlights the latest news concerning the stock markets and (2) outlies the schedule of government publications on fiscal and economic matters for the European Union, the United States, and Brazil.
Brazilian Economy
Brazilian economics experienced its share of challenges throughout the last century. However, with the introduction of the Real Plan, the country found itself navigating a somewhat more stable terrain. Yet, its stability remains heavily contingent on external factors and, crucially, on the government's fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies.
Brazil - Government Debt
The total amount of money that a government owes to creditors. This debt is accumulated through borrowing, typically through issuing bonds or other securities.
Brazil - Balance of Trade
Balance of trade is the difference between the monetary value of a nation's exports and imports over a certain time period.
Brazil foreign direct investment
Real Estate Investment Fund Index
US Economy
The US economy has been a powerhouse on the global stage, characterized by its resilience and innovation. Over the past century, it has weathered various economic crises, including the Great Depression of the 1930s and the 2008 financial crisis, emerging stronger each time. With a GDP exceeding $21 trillion and a diverse array of industries ranging from technology to finance to manufacturing, the US remains a key player in the global economy.
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity
(T10Y3M)
The 10-year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-month Treasury Constant Maturity is a measure of the yield spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury securities, indicating the difference in long-term and short-term interest rates. A negative index suggests that short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, which can indicate economic concerns like an impending recession or tight credit conditions.
10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity
(T10Y2Y)
The 10-year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-year Treasury Constant Maturity is a measure of the yield spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasury securities, indicating the difference in long-term and short-term interest rates. A negative index suggests that short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, which can indicate economic concerns like an impending recession or tight credit conditions.
Federal Funds Effective Rate
(FEDFUNDS)
The Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS) is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight, as set by the Federal Reserve. It serves as a benchmark for short-term interest rates in the financial markets.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller FL-Miami Home Price Index
(MIXRNSA)
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller FL-Miami Home Price Index (MIXRNSA) is a widely recognized measure of housing market trends, specifically tracking the prices of single-family homes in the Miami metropolitan area. This index uses a repeat-sales methodology, which compares the prices of the same properties over time to control for variations in home quality and location. The "NSA" denotes that the data is not seasonally adjusted, reflecting raw price changes without adjustments for predictable seasonal fluctuations. This index is valuable for understanding the dynamics of home prices in Miami, providing insights for investors, policymakers, and analysts.
10Y/2Y Yield Spread & Unemployment Rate
Originally shared back in July 2023 (see below charts)
Its interesting to see that the yield curve is rising fast (up towards the 0 level)
We are reaching into dangerous recessionary territory. No guarantees, just a significantly increased probability.
Continuous jobless claims are reaching pre-recession warning levels in both time and volume. Meaning more and more people are becoming unemployed and remaining unemployed for longer.